HENGFENG CAPITAL PERSPECTIVES
Perspective through change.
Independent observations on policy cycles, global capital and long-term value.
恒峰资本 HENGFENG CAPITALMONETARY POLICY
aggressive quantitative tightening would be constrained by Treasury absorption, long-term yields, banking-system resilience and repo-market liquidity, favouring a cautious and staged path.
恒峰资本 HENGFENG CAPITALCURRENCIES & PRICING
the roughly 215–235 basis-point static spread between offshore RMB funding and two- to five-year Treasuries appeared attractive, but an RMB appreciation of more than 3% could erase the return of an insufficiently hedged carry trade.
恒峰资本 HENGFENG CAPITALCURRENCIES & PRICING
appreciation pressure on the RMB would persist, but the path would be managed around exports, employment and financial stability rather than replicate the yen’s rapid post-Plaza revaluation.
恒峰资本 HENGFENG CAPITALRATES & FIXED INCOME
whether aggressive tightening raised supply and term-premium pressure or a policy reversal lifted inflation expectations, Treasuries beyond 20 years were exposed to capital losses from higher long-end yields.
Selected research perspectives · Original research dates retained; market developments reviewed over time.
