Balance-sheet reduction would remain liquidity-constrained

aggressive quantitative tightening would be constrained by Treasury absorption, long-term yields, banking-system resilience and repo-market liquidity, favouring a cautious and staged path.

Research review

the Federal Reserve continued to place ample reserves and money-market stability at the centre of balance-sheet management, maintaining reserve-management operations rather than pursuing unconstrained rapid contraction.

Selected from research written in April 2026, with review through October 2026. These selected perspectives do not represent a complete forecast record or investment performance. Views may change and do not constitute investment advice.