OUR PERSPECTIVE
Read the cycle. Understand what the price leaves open.
Technology shapes our long-term research agenda; macro analysis examines the cost of capital and the conditions for participation. We focus on persistent changes in productivity, capital expenditure, earnings delivery and funding. Every macro narrative must translate into observable variables and explicit investment conditions.
Research Focus
Technology & Capital Formation
From computing, semiconductors, energy and digital infrastructure to enterprise software and industry applications, we study how adoption changes investment demand, costs and the distribution of profits. Capital expenditure is assessed alongside utilization, cash generation and sustainable returns on capital. Prices and business models determine how technological progress translates into investment outcomes.
Policy Intent & Market Expectations
Asset prices reflect expectations and their revisions. We compare policy communication and implementation with market-implied paths, considering US–China divergence, fiscal constraints and balance-sheet adjustment. The central question is which consensus assumptions are most vulnerable, and what evidence could reprice rates, currencies and risk assets.
Rates & the Economics of Holding
Yield curves, term premia, funding conditions and holding horizons are assessed together. Headline differentials become comparable investment propositions only after funding, hedging and transaction costs. We also examine refinancing pressure, maturity mismatch and the sensitivity of long-duration growth assets to changes in rates.
Currencies, Flows & Relative Value
Currencies connect domestic policy, global capital and investor balance sheets. Spot and forward prices, onshore and offshore funding, and cross-currency hedging costs help distinguish rate effects from capital flows and changes in risk premia. Relative-value opportunities require an economic rationale and workable holding and exit conditions.
Events & Structural Change
Long-term industrial change anchors our research, while geopolitical conflict, trade restrictions and policy events are assessed through their transmission channels. We ask whether they alter access to technology, supply chains, energy costs, capital flows or corporate cash flows. Sentiment shocks and structural changes call for different assessments; evidence affecting long-term value must inform research and portfolio decisions.
From Scenarios to Allocation
Base, upside and stress scenarios are organized around key variables, with explicit triggers and portfolio implications. Expected return is evaluated alongside loss paths, liquidity, funding needs and correlation. Risk budgets should respond to evidence so that long-term direction, holding horizons and practical loss tolerance remain aligned.
Conviction with the Capacity to Reassess
We are constructive on the long-term potential of technological progress, while requiring every investment to make sense at a specific price and within explicit constraints. If productivity, commercialization, returns on capital or funding conditions diverge from the thesis, both the research view and risk budget require reassessment. Independent judgment combines persistence with the ability to revise a view when the evidence changes.