Long-duration Treasuries carried asymmetric downside risk

whether aggressive tightening raised supply and term-premium pressure or a policy reversal lifted inflation expectations, Treasuries beyond 20 years were exposed to capital losses from higher long-end yields.

Research review

the 30-year Treasury yield rose from about 4.92% in late April to roughly 5.61% in early October, pressuring long-duration bond prices in line with the asymmetric risk identified in the paper.

Selected from research written in April 2026, with review through October 2026. These selected perspectives do not represent a complete forecast record or investment performance. Views may change and do not constitute investment advice.